I found a post on Wired giving an analysis of the odds of winning in the three Fable 2 Pub Games.
Summary: You can’t win. The odds are so shockingly stacked against the player that winning comes more down to complete chance than anything else. I think this further re-enforces my theory that this is a social experiment designed to force players in to cheating to win, something I have so far refused to do (cheat, and win – much – as it happens).
I guess that makes the 10,000 gold I’ve won so far (legitmately, I didn’t use the cheat) either a result of amazing luck or super-human skill, I’ll take either, I guess.